Earth and Planetary Surface Processes

Sun _ Moon-Earth ,earthquakes ( data prediction)

  • 1.  Sun _ Moon-Earth ,earthquakes ( data prediction)

    AGU Member
    Posted 10-22-2019 13:02

                My name is Marilia Hagen; email : marhagen@indiana.edu , we are studying the Sun-Moon-Earth possible connections with earthquakes.   In this research, we defined how the bodies interacting with each other, Sun-Earth (electromagnetic forces), Moon- Earth (gravitational forces) those pairs of force are the most important to consider and to search how they would affect the Earth's surface. 

                There is an impossibility to describe Sun- Moon- Earth connections in one mathematical model, therefore our option is to study data available, as listed at the end of this report. Our studies involving data from earthquakes catalogs for Earth, public data for interplanetary parameters as Solar Cycles, Coronal Mass Ejections, solar flares, for the Sun.   For the Moon, the tables with perigee /apogee positions.  Our outcomes are calculated in very long periods and always give probabilistic or statistical relationships.  Data cited in this report is provided to the public.

     Sun-Earth possible connections with earthquakes

    Sun      -The first step in this research was to search possible connections Solar cycles, Earth, and earthquakes.  Solar cycles are a variation on the electromagnetic Sun 's field that will repeat after eleven years.  A peak on the sunspot count is called maximum when the period presents few sunspots is named minimum. Sunspots are a magnetic disturbance on the Sun's surface, which generates solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections.  During the Solar maximum, the Sun will emit radiation in the X-ray and ultraviolet portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.  The most affected part of the Earth's magnetosphere is the uppermost layers of the atmosphere.   The solar wind speed is 800 km/s in coronal holes and 300 km/s over streamers. These high and low-speed streams interact with other and alternately pass by the Earth as the Sun rotates. These wind speed variations buffet the Earth's magnetic field and can produce storms in the Earth's magnetosphere.   Coronal mass ejections, if colliding with the Earth's magnetosphere will change the shape of the magnetosphere, temporarily. The pressure of the solar wind on Earth's magnetic field compresses the field on the dayside of Earth and stretches the area into a long tail on the nightside. The shape of the resulting distorted field has been compared to the appearance of water flowing around a rock in a stream. (1,2)   In our first papers, we tried to find out if those disturbances would affect the Earth's surface as earthquakes.    

    Earth  

    The question is: Can we consider the Earth's surface homogeneous?    How the earth's surface is going to answer to magnetic perturbation from the Sun?   The Earth's surface is in isostatic equilibrium what means the underlying rocks differ in density and thickness depending on the area.

    -convergent margin/ subduction zone – two plates move toward each other, one sinking beneath the other. 

    Convergent margin/collision zones – two continental plates are colliding, forming a mountain range.

    Divergent margin or spreading zones- two tectonic plates move away from each other. 

    Transform faults- two plates sliding past each other forms a transform plate boundary.    Rocks that line the border are annihilated as the plates scrape along, producing a linear fault valley or undersea canyon.   

                For each of these areas convergent, divergent or transform the events of the earthquake have different characteristics in magnitude, depth or intensity.

     

     

    Seismology and plate margin

                The movement of tectonic plates is the cause of earthquakes. These movements could be slightly disturbed if there are influences from the Sun, Moon on Earth. Sun-Earth interacting electromagnetically as when we have the variations on the Solar Wind speed or geomagnetic storms. Moon – Earth connections are through gravity between the two bodies, Moon creates the tidal forces that are very effective on subduction zones.  Most of the stronger quakes are shallow and at subduction zones.

    Individual plates of varying sizes move about the surface of the Earth at different speeds. Friction causes the plates to get stuck. If the plates stuck, it causes pressure to build up. When this stress is released, an earthquake will occur. Where plates pull apart, slide by each other or collide, there is tectonic activity manifested as earthquakes. Most of the seismicity on the planet occurs at plate boundaries, although intra-plate seismicity can occur as well when stresses build up in the plate.

    -Earthquakes occur in portions of the lithosphere that are stiff and brittle

    - Earthquakes usually happen on pre-existing fracture surfaces, or faults.

    Transform plate boundaries have shallow, but mighty earthquakes.

    - At convergent plate boundaries, where two continental plates collide, earthquakes are deep and very powerful.

    - Individual plates of varying sizes move about the surface of the Earth at changing speeds. Friction causes the plates to get stuck. This causes pressure to build up. When this stress is released, an earthquake will occur.

    - At divergent plate boundaries, earthquakes tend to be weak and shallow.

    -Transform plate boundaries have shallow, but mighty earthquakes.           

    -At convergent plate boundaries, where two continental plates collide, earthquakes are deep and very powerful.      

    -In general, the deepest and the most powerful earthquakes occur at plate collision (or subduction) zones at convergent plate boundaries.

                The research my co-author and I do is search to connect the disturbances from the Sun on the Earth's magnetosphere, showing they can influence on the rise of earthquakes.  (3,4,5) This study was made through data and found some statistical results.

    Moon-Earth

    Moon's orbit around Earth is the elliptical shape and has a position r, (Earth-Moon) with a minimum distance in Perigee and maximum as in Apogee. The orbit around the Earth has irregularities we studied through the Perigee (356.400- 370.400 km). It was ignored the orbital eccentricity variation took as one for elliptical orbits, an inclination which varies (relative to the ecliptic plane); both modifications were not considered in our papers.  The formula is:

    F= GMT mL /r2

     G, MT, and mL are considered constants, and only the r is a variant at the perigee position reached twice by month. The tidal evolution of this formula gave us an approximately sinusoidal shape, and we took several periods as Solar Cycles, as 22,23 and 24 (6). 

    The moon's phases (7)

                Moon phases are determined by the relative positions of the Moon, Earth, and Sun.

     New Moon occurs when Moon, Earth, and Sun all lie along approximately the same line. Since the sun is behind the moon from the earth's perspective, the side of the moon facing the planet is dark.

     Full Moon happens when Moon, Earth, and Sun also lie approximately in a line, but this time, the Moon is located on the opposite side of Earth, so the Sun illuminates the whole side facing us. 

    First and Third Quarter-         

    Moons rest perpendicular to a line between Earth and the Sun.  We see exactly half of the Moon illuminated by the Sun- the other half remains in shadow. The illuminated Moon gradually transitions to each phase, the names of in-between periods are crescent, gibbous, waxing, and waning. Crescent is the phases where the Moon is less than half – illuminated; gibbous is when it is more than half illuminated.   Wax implies "growing" in illumination, waning means shrinking in illumination. (7,8,9)

          The explanation above for each extraterrestrial force between the three bodies was essential to understand how to deal with them and the possible connection with the rise or weakening earthquake events.   Our papers consulting the following catalogs for earthquakes, 10,11,12.

    For solar data, 13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22. Moon data, 23,24, 25.

    References

    1.https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SolarWind.shtml

     2.https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/earths-magnetosphere

    1. https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/plate-boundaries.html
    2. http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/geology/grocha/plates/platetec16.htm
    3. Tavares, M. and Azevedo, A. (2011) Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes. Natural Science3, 436-443. doi: 10.4236/ns.2011.36060.
    4. Hagen, M. and Azevedo, A. (2016) Gravitational Moon-Earth Forces Triggering Earthquakes in Subduction Zones. Journal of Geography, Environment, and Earth Science International, 8, 1-14. doi.org/10.9734/JGEESI/2016/29227.

    7.https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-resources/what-are-the-phases-of-the-moon/

    8.Hagen, M. and Azevedo, A. (2017) Sun-Moon-Earth Interactions, External Factors for Earthquakes. Natural Science, 9, 162-180.

    1. Hagen, M. and Azevedo, A. (2017) Possible Connections between X-Solar Flares and Worldwide Variation in Seismicity Enhancement. Natural Science9, 457-476. Doi: 10.4236/ns.2017.912042.

    Earthquakes data:

    10.   http /11/earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

    11.  http //ds.iris.edu/wilber3/find_event

    12. http//www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?filter=yes

     

    Solar Data

    13. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/solar-activity/top-50-solar-flares/year/2000

    14. http //services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    15. NGDC/NOAA. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

    16. Pressure Variations.

    http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

    17.       http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/coronalweather/CMEsFlares/page3.html

    18.       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch.shtml

    19.       http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts

    20.       https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/top-50-solar-flares

    21.       http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

    22.       NGDC/NOAA. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

    Moon Data

    23.Espenak, F. (2014). Six Millennium Catalog of Phases of the Moon.

    astropixels.com/ephemeris/phasescat/phasescat.html

    24.       http://www.moongiant.com/moonphases/october/november/2010/

    25.       https://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html (perigee/apogee)

     

     

     

     

     



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    Marilia Hagen
    marhagen@indiana.edu
    Indiana, USA
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