Earth and Planetary Surface Processes

Prediction of earthquakes ( correction)

  • 1.  Prediction of earthquakes ( correction)

    AGU Member
    Posted 10-20-2019 13:30

                 I did not introduce myself last email.  Corrected some issues as well. Hoping is clear.

    My name is Marilia Hagen, currently living in Bloomington, Indiana.  I am a retired professor who graduated in Sciences from Unicamp, São Paulo, Brazil. My email address is marhagen@indiana.edu

    Now, we are working with Sun-Moon-Earth possible interactions with earthquakes. For the 3-body system, we could not idealize a theoretical model that would make it possible to input all the parameters necessary to understand a connection in such a three-dimensional system.  Therefore, along the years, we are working with data from different catalogs, from the Solar system, or moon variations, or earth tectonics, or earthquakes.  Let us start with a simple one, the prediction of earthquakes on Earth's surface.

                Earthquake prediction has been a challenge for those studying hazard events. Other events are more predicted but not quakes. Somehow, is they occur worldwide, magnitudes record over a vast spectrum between M2.5-M10.

                Depths ranging are from few kilometers to under 700 km, as in the Fiji Islands. However, if we examine the data, it is not chaotic.

                a) Some locations are more likely to happen to the deepest earthquakes.

                b) Other areas we have a high number of aftershocks or foreshocks than others.  Then, our initial step is to define the region by coordinates.  It is also important to synchronize with a period. (longest possible is the best, but of course, it creates several problems)

                Let us explain in more detail, defining our input data to work with Earth only,

    a) location (determine the coordinates)

    b) tectonics in the region studied. Are we working in a convergence, divergence, or transform area? Are there subduction zones? Define each of them, stratigraphy, and other parameters in the location and use position maps. (Google Maps)

    c) Which are the possible magnitudes in /these areas?  There are magnitudes in the catalogs M2.5-M10.

    d) Depths occurrence- Some places in the West of the United States deep earthquake occurrences do not reach 300km. The depths are essential to understand, to search.  There are few locations with the ultra-deep earthquakes.  There is a location with induced earthquakes, anthropogenic earthquakes; therefore, they will give wrong answers in our calculations.

                The input data are in various catalogs like USGS, IRIS, EMSC. We worked with several different ones because there is a difference among them; the most evident is between USGS and IRIS.

    e) Regression on time. The validity of our results has a dependence on how much data was collected in the period we choose.  Data collected over long periods are the best.  However, the acquisition of the data from the catalogs became better late '60.   With the data collection and comparing where there was a surge of earthquakes in time, we will be starting to be able to predict the next event.  In this kind of study, we do not need to take it worldwide, but it is crucial to have it in a substantial period.

                That is the first step.  Our research goes a step farther; it examines the possible interactions with Sun- Moon on Earth.